Vladimir Putin is already campaigning, almost a million people left Russia before the war (91st week of the war)

Monday, November 13, 2023 (626. deň vojny)

The USA gives the Ukrainians 60 Cheetahs

On Monday, Slovenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Juraj Blanár confirmed the intention of our country to continue humanitarian aid to Ukraine even after the change of power, including financing of production of two machines of Bozen IV.

The Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba once again stated that the European Union will not be able to fulfill its plan to add to Ukraine by March 2024 a million delostreckých grenades. The reason for this is the bureaucratic inability to ensure the plan.

Germany plans to add two more IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine by the end of the deadline.

The United States bought from Jordan 60 Gepard protilietadlových hlavňových systems, which they plan to add to Ukraine in the coming months.

Analysts of the Institute for War Research claim that the Ukrainian side has already intensified attacks on Russian military facilities in occupied territories and in Russian native territories.

Romanian Defense Minister Angel Tilvar and his Dutch colleague Kaisa Ollongrenová opened a training center for F-16 pilots at the 86th Air Base in Borcea, where, among other things, they will train future Ukrainian pilots.

Britský týždenník The Economist, referring to the representatives of the American administration, introduced that the USA already assumed that Ukraine lost 70,000 soldiers in the war, and another 120,000 soldiers were wounded. It is, however, an older estimate published in August of this year on the pages of The New York Times, which predicted that during the same period, Russian losses were 120,000 dead and up to 180,000 wounded.

The British news service assumes that reports from the Russian media about the abuse of drugs and alcohol in the Russian armed forces can be trusted. This is what analysts think before the initial report on the high rate of disciplinary violations, crimes and deaths related to drug and alcohol use – up to 15 percent of Russian soldiers are dependent on drugs and alcohol.

Ukrainské prášuty abandoned by the unilateral withdrawal of Russia from the abundant initiative, the ship is already standing with cargo. More than 3.7 million tons of goods, mainly of abundance, were transported via waterways from ukrainian ports.

Tuesday, November 14, 2023 (627. deň vojny)

Ukrainians are given personal collections of exclusive domestic productions

Commander-in-Chief of the Ukranian Armed Forces, generálplukovník Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that Russian units are already increasing the intensity of their use of suicide drones.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine continues the programs of vyzbrojovania opslákíkov obzrejných síl vyválky osobným obrávním a ručnými zhravami ukrainskéj výrobkym.

The Ukrainian government has signed a contract with the German Rheinmetall concern for the delivery of 25 Leopard 1A5 combat tanks, piatich bronánych opravárenských a evacuačných vezidok Bergepanzer 2 on the Leopard 1 chassis and two training tanks on the Leopard 1 chassis. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that Germany already plans to to provide Ukraine with military aid in the amount of 8 billion euros in accordance with the prepared budget, and another 2 billion euros could be provided depending on the budget development. At the same time, Germany handed over another tranche of military aid to Ukraine, which contains 10 Leopard 1A5 tanks, 14 Bv 206 tracked vehicles, 10 pilotless reconnaissance equipment and many other equipment.

Ukrainian drones, according to Russian media, attacked factories in Moscow and Bryansk regions that produce parts of Iskander and Kinžal missiles, as well as explosives.

On the other hand, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with nine Shahed-136 suicide drones, one Iskander-M ballistic missile and one Ch-35 anti-aircraft missile. Seven suicide drones Shahed bolo zostrelených ukrainianskou stranou.

Inštitút pre studium vojny confirmed on the basis of geolocation, already Russian forces – as we informed the previous week – advanced to the východný district of Stepove severna from Avdijivka.

Wednesday, November 15, 2023 (628. deň vojny)

Putin is already campaigning

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia is trying to regain the initiative in Ukraine with high-intensity attacks, especially in the direction of the cities of Kupjansk, Bachmut and Avdijivka. According to analysts, it is not clear whether this will happen to Russia. With the approaching Russian presidential elections, the pressure will increase for the Russian forces to gain any success on the battlefield at any cost.

According to the British news media, the demonstrative meetings of Russian President Vladimir Putin with military commanders are probably part of the pre-election campaign of the Russian dictator, but they do not indicate a change in strategy in the Russian campaign in Ukraine.

Josep Borrell, the vice-president of the European Commission and the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy together with the European Commission presented a draft of the twelfth package of sanctions against Russia on Wednesday. It should also contain a reduction in the price ceiling on the delivery of Russian crude oil. The leader of the Democratic Party of the American Senate, Chuck Schumer, predicts that the Senate will discuss the financing of aid to Ukraine for the next period already at the end of the month.

Thursday, November 16, 2023 (629. deň vojny)

Odhady sa róznia, the Russians could already withdraw 400,000 soldiers from the battle

Russian forces fired 18 Shahed-136 suicide drones, one Ch-59 and one S-300 anti-aircraft missile in ballistic mode in Ukraine. Ukrainians shot down 16 Shahedov a Ch-59.

The British intelligence service assumes that the Russian forces already suffered large losses when attempting a direct attack on the coke plant in Avdijivke, because it provides a significant tactical advantage to the Ukrainian side – it represents a strengthened dominant position over the entire terrain.

According to ruských media, a large fire broke out at a military base near the village of Kotluban in the Volgograd region of Russia.

In Kurská oblasti podla ruských mediá, they shot down five ukrainian suicide drones.

Inštút pre studium vojny verified (georeferencing available sources) the whole zone, which is controlled by Ukrainian forces on the eastern side of the Dnieper. The zone stretches from the village of Krynky to the remains of the Antonio bridge. Predmostie tak reaches dimensions up to 20 kilometers wide and 8 to 2 kilometers deep.

Britský denník The Guardian s odvolaním sa nemenovaných západných predstavitelůvnílívníl, the Russian side has already permanently lost 300,000 to 400,000 soldiers.

Ukrainian forces transferred 3 brigades to the east bank of the Dnieper with a total strength of 12 to 15 thousand soldiers.

Western representatives do not expect that the Ukrainian side will be able to break through the Russian defense in any place – even in the case of the bridgehead on the Dnieper, as at Orichov – but a slow advance of Ukrainian forces is expected. On the other hand, the Russian forces are losing 500 to 1000 Russian soldiers in unnecessary battles near Avdijivka.

Friday, November 17, 2023 (630. deň vojny)

Almost a million people left Russia before the war

Podla inštitútu pre studium vojny ukrainské sily prošupili na línii contactu juhozápadne od Robotiny. Russian forces advanced northwest of Avdijivka in the previous days.

Velenie navrojnej pechoty Osbrojených síl Ukrajiny confirmed the construction of a permanent post on the eastern bank of the Dnieper river in several locations.

Russian air strikes on Friday were limited to the use of 10 Shahed-136 suicide drones (of which 9 were shot down) and several S-300 anti-aircraft missiles fired in an anti-ground mode.

During the next term, the Netherlands will provide another two billion euros in the form of military aid to Ukraine.

Finnish President Sauli Niinisto approved the government’s proposal for the 20th package of military aid to Ukraine in the amount of 100 million euros.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Ukranian National Security Service has detained 16,700 men attempting to illegally leave the territory of Ukraine. Another 8,512 residents of Ukraine were detained in the European Union countries after illegally crossing the EU border with Ukraine, according to Frontex data. This documents the significant difference in military service in Ukraine and in the Russian Federation. According to Re:Russia, 817,000 to 922,000 inhabitants left Russia as a result of the war.

Saturday 18 November 2023 (631st day of war)

The Russians set up a prisoner exchange

After a long time, Russia attacked several dozens of Shahed-136 drones. A total of 38 suicide drones were launched, while Ukrainian forces shot down 29 drones that were launched from the Kursk and Krasnodar regions.

The Reuters agency reported on the cargo ship Georgia S, sailing under the flag of Liberia with a cargo of wheat from Pivdennyj, which hit a mine.

Russia has set up a prisoner exchange in an attempt to create a perception that the Ukrainian side does not care about its soldiers who were captured. Ruské spravodajské služby sa snažia rozšíriť tento naratív a vyvájú through social media to organize civil resistance in order to weaken the Ukrainian side.

The British news service stated that, despite intense fighting on the eastern bank of the Dnieper, near Avdijivka and in the direction of Kupiansk, and subsequent record Russian losses near Avdijivka, the line of contact did not change during the previous week. Its analysts also point to the intention of the Russian Federation to integrate the AWACS A-50 aircraft and the S-400 anti-aircraft rocket systems in order to achieve the ability to triafať nizkoletiace ciele in the depths of the Ukrainian territory. This should be a response to the planned deployment of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine’s armed forces. Considering that already Ukraine has to keep aircraft whose deliveries started in the 80s, but are therefore equivalent to the oldest versions of the Mig-29 aircraft, it is a mere propaganda attempt by Russia to report the downfall of an outdated western aircraft.

Sunday, November 19, 2023 (632. deň vojny)

The Russians lose as many soldiers in three days as the USA in 20 days in Afghanistan

Russian forces attacked Ukraine again with 20 suicide drones, 15 of which were shot down by the Ukrainian side. According to Správy navryných přištov Ukrajiny, ships with 27.6 million tons of goods, mainly of abundance, have been shipped from the ports of Vienna since the beginning of the term. This is a 2.2-fold increase compared to the same period last year. Ukraine has sufficient capacities to fully replace the abundant corridor that the Russian Federation unilaterally announced.

According to britskéj spravojádskej služby, the Russian Federation is considering, already returning to service the M-55 aircraft from the Soviet Union, which are the counterpart of the U-2 aircraft. The reason for this unusual step is the inability of Russian aircraft to gain air control over the territory of Ukraine. Lietadlá M-55 would carry out reconnaissance operations from the territory of the Russian Federation, and its very high flight temperature would enable it to obtain intelligence information from the depths of the territory of Ukraine.

For the second week in a row, Ukraine broke the record for Russian casualties, mainly because of the fighting for Avdijivka. The Ukrainians claim that they have already removed from the battle another 7,000 Russian soldiers. If the Ukrainian forces had maintained the same ratio of permanent losses, as the western intelligence services assume, the actual number of dead Russian soldiers would have been 2,800 to 3,750 for the last week, and the number of wounded with permanent consequences would have reached another 4,200 to 5,600.

By comparison: the USA lost only 1,140 soldiers in the 20-year war in Afghanistan. Russia is now losing as many soldiers every 2 to 3 days in Ukraine as the USA lost in Afghanistan in 20 years. Despite these tragic numbers, but given the low value of human life in Russian society, it cannot be expected that Russian losses will lead to the end of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.