According to the Iceland Meteorological Office, the magma could get very close to the earth’s surface, and an eruption in the Grindavík area is still possible but still very likely.
“Our data and models show that the probability of an eruption is imminent, but we really have to wait patiently for the next few days to see what happens,” informed the Iceland Meteorological Office.
According to the authorities, the declining activity of earthquakes for the last 24 hours could be a sign that the magma is already just below the earth’s surface.
The Met Office has announced that magmatic gas has already been detected in the gardens of Svartsenga, which signals an imminent eruption in the next few days, with the evacuated town of Grindavík most at risk.
Where is the eruption likely to occur?
The models even revealed the most likely place where magma begins to flow to the surface. It is a locality near Hagafell Horská municipality, north of Grindavík.
In this locality, there is a more acute deformation of the earth. About 2,000 small earthquakes were recorded in the last 24 hours, the largest of which was near Hagefell with a magnitude of 3.0.
According to the authorities, it may take a long time before the residents of Grindavík can move back, said the director of the civil defense department, Víðir Reynisson. “This plus the uncertainty related to the earthquakes means that already the objavelia tohto mesta sa musia in the next few months to prepare for life elsewhere,” said Reynisson.
In addition, Icelandic authorities have announced that at least 20 homes in the city have been seriously damaged, but the local infrastructure has also been severely damaged.
Iceland is very prone to natural disasters, because it lies on the mid-Atlantic ridge – the divergent tectonic plate, where the North American plate and the Euroasian plate are rising from each other, which leads to frequent volcanic eruptions and earthquakes.
Three eruptions have occurred on the Reykjanes peninsula near the Fagradalsfjall volcano in the last three years: in March 2021, August 2022 and July 2023.